Does removing soda and candy from checkout cut sales?
For soda, yes. For candy overall, no. Once Berkeley, California began enforcing its rule against displaying soda and candy at checkout, soda sales in its stores fell 39.5% compared with stores in three other California cities. Total candy sales did not go down.
Putting products in prominent spots like the checkout lane can drive impulse buys of sugary foods and drinks. On March 1, 2021, Berkeley became the first place in the world to make a healthy checkout rule mandatory. Stores could no longer display foods high in added sugar or sweetened drinks, including soda and candy, at checkout. The rule became enforceable on January 1, 2022. A team of researchers then asked a simple question: did people buy less?
How the study was done
The researchers used scanner sales data, the records a store creates every time an item is rung up. The data ran from March 2019 to December 2023 and covered 71 chain stores in Berkeley and three comparison cities in California. Those stores included 19 supermarkets, 42 drugstores, and 10 large “mass merchandiser” stores. That added up to more than 9 million soda records and more than 52 million candy records.
They then compared how sales changed in Berkeley with how sales changed in the other cities over the same stretch. This design is called difference-in-differences. It helps strip out trends that affect every city at the same time. “Soda” here meant drinks sweetened with sugar or with non-sugar sweeteners, so diet soda counted too.
What the data show
In the first stretch, after the rule started but before it could be enforced, soda sales in Berkeley fell by 2,478 liters per store every three months, or 23.4%, compared with the other cities. The plausible range for that estimate included no change at all, so it could have been chance.
After enforcement, the drop grew to about 3,891 liters per store every three months, or 39.5%. This time the result cleared the bar for statistical significance, but only barely. The researchers’ plausible range ran from a drop of 7,774 liters down to a drop of just 7 liters. So the decline was very likely real, but its true size is uncertain. Most of the drop came from large soda packages, which fell 42.5% after enforcement. Results varied by store type.
Candy told a different story. Overall candy sales actually rose 10.4% in the first stretch, about 220 kilograms more per store every three months. After enforcement, candy was up 7.8%, but that figure could easily have been chance. The one clear candy win was in supermarkets. Sales of small candy packages there fell by 132 kilograms (34.9%) after the rule started and by 156 kilograms (43.2%) after enforcement.
Dr. Kumar’s Take
Most nutrition advice puts the whole job on willpower. This study points at the environment instead. Change where the product sits, and soda sold noticeably less.
The candy result keeps this from being a clean victory. Small candy packages in supermarkets dropped, which makes sense because those are the classic checkout grab. But total candy sales did not fall. People may have simply picked up candy from another aisle. Also, the biggest soda drop came from large packages, which are not the typical checkout item. So the pattern is more complicated than shoppers simply skipping the drink by the register.
This also measured sales, not health. Nobody’s weight, blood sugar, or teeth were tracked. And because diet soda was counted with regular soda, we cannot tell how much sugar people actually avoided.
Limits worth knowing
This was a quasi-experimental study, not a randomized trial. Berkeley was not assigned the rule at random, so other local changes during those years could have nudged sales in the same direction.
The data covered 71 of 183 chain stores the team identified across the four cities, so it does not capture every shop. It was also limited to chains, which leaves out independent stores. As the authors put it, how the rule is rolled out and enforced may need tailoring.
Practical Takeaways
- Checkout displays can drive impulse buys, so deciding before you get in line that you will skip the cooler and candy rack takes the decision out of the moment.
- If you are trying to cut sugary or diet soda, keep large multipacks out of your cart, since those were where the biggest sales change showed up in this study.
- Removing one tempting display does not remove the craving, so pay attention to whether you are simply buying the same snack in another aisle.
- Setting up your own kitchen the same way, with sweets out of sight and water or fruit in view, applies the same idea at home.
Related Studies and Research
- Sugary drinks, fructose, and the risk of gout in men
- Sugary drinks as a teen raise your blood pressure risk later
- Are artificial sweeteners bad for your blood sugar and heart?
- Less sugar in a baby’s first 1,000 days and lifelong risk
- Does the type of healthy diet change how fast you age?
FAQs
What is a healthy checkout law?
A healthy checkout law limits what stores can display in the checkout area. Berkeley’s version bans foods high in added sugar and sweetened drinks, including soda and candy, from checkout displays. The goal is not to ban the foods but to stop placing them where people make fast, unplanned purchases.
Why did candy sales go up in Berkeley?
The study does not pin down a cause. The estimate after enforcement could have been chance, so the safest reading is that total candy sales did not fall. The drop in small candy packages at supermarkets suggests the checkout grab did shrink, even if total candy buying did not.
Does moving soda away from checkout make people healthier?
That was not measured. This study tracked store sales only, so it cannot say whether anyone lost weight or had better blood sugar. Lower soda sales are a plausible first step toward less added sugar, but diet soda was counted too. Answering the health question would take studies that follow people’s intake and health over time.
Bottom Line
Berkeley’s first-of-its-kind checkout rule was linked to a 39.5% drop in soda sales after enforcement compared with other California cities, although the true size of that drop is uncertain. Total candy sales did not fall, and results depended on the product, the package size, and the type of store. Where products sit can shape what people buy, but a checkout rule on its own is not a complete fix.
