Adults who got enough moderate-to-vigorous activity, or who ate less ultra-processed food, were less likely to develop type 2 diabetes, even when their genes put them at high risk, according to a City University of Hong Kong analysis of 56,964 UK Biobank adults.
If diabetes runs in your family, this is a reason to keep moving and cut back on sugary, ultra-processed drinks, not a reason to give up. What it does not do is prove that those changes will lower your own risk by a set amount. If you have not had your blood sugar checked with an A1c test, that is a fair thing to ask your doctor about.
The diet signal was small, and it came mostly from one kind of product. The same foods have shown up in other outcomes too: are ultra-processed foods also tied to heart disease?
Key takeaways
- In people with high genetic risk, getting enough moderate-to-vigorous activity, measured by a wrist tracker, was tied to 33% lower diabetes risk.
- In the same high-genetic-risk group, eating less ultra-processed food was tied to 35% lower risk.
- This is an observational study. Nobody was asked to change their diet or exercise.
What the study found
Researchers led by Wenxin Xu used diet questionnaires to estimate how much of each person’s food came from ultra-processed products, and a wrist-worn activity tracker worn for a week to measure moderate-to-vigorous activity. Examples include brisk walking, cycling and walking the dog. Genetic risk came from each person’s DNA data. The average age was 69.5.
- Ultra-processed food: each 10% more of the diet by weight was tied to about 7% higher risk.
- Activity: among people with high genetic risk who also ate a lot of ultra-processed food, those who got enough moderate-to-vigorous activity were 31% less likely to develop diabetes.
- High genetic risk: lower ultra-processed intake was tied to 35% lower risk, and enough activity to 33% lower risk.
Dr. Kumar’s take
The release says these habits “can cut” diabetes risk. The study cannot show that. Each person’s diet and activity were measured once, and nobody changed anything. As Prof Kevin McConway of the Open University put it, the study “didn’t look at changes in UPF intake or physical activity levels, so it simply can’t tell us about the effects of such changes.”
The diet effect is also small in absolute terms. Each extra 10% of the diet from ultra-processed food was tied to about 7% higher relative risk, a modest shift even if the link is causal.
The more useful detail sits in the breakdown. When the researchers split ultra-processed food into types, “ultra-processed drinks were the only subgroup that remained significantly associated with diabetes after full adjustment,” according to Prof Alberto Fiore of Abertay University. That points at soda and other sweetened drinks, not at every packaged food in your pantry.
Activity was measured with a device, not a memory, and it carried the bigger association. Dr Beverley O’Hara of Leeds Beckett University noted the largest difference appeared between people who were inactive and those who were moderately active. The biggest step appeared to be going from doing little to doing some.
Two more limits: everyone in the genetic analysis was of European ancestry, and outside experts said the conference materials give few details on methods.
What it means for you
A family history of diabetes does not make your habits pointless. Two changes line up with this data: eating less ultra-processed food, and getting regular moderate-to-vigorous activity. Neither needs a prescription, and both are in line with standard diabetes-prevention advice.
This study does not justify fearing every packaged food, and it cannot tell you how much your personal risk will fall. Diet and activity rarely act alone: how small can combined changes in sleep, exercise and diet be and still matter?
If you have not had an A1c test, or it has been a while, ask your doctor whether you are due. Your doctor can weigh your family history, weight and other results to decide what testing and follow-up make sense for you.